Barcelona population growth has reached its highest level in forty years, with 1,732,066 inhabitants recorded in 2025. This surge marks a significant recovery following the pandemic years, consolidating an upward trend that began in 2023. However, a new report suggests this is only the beginning of a complex demographic shift that will reshape the Catalan capital over the next two decades.
According to projections for the 2024-2044 period, based on the municipal register and growth scenarios from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Idescat), the city’s population is expected to grow by a further 4% in the medium-term scenario. This would push the number of residents to approximately 1,771,464 by 2044. In a higher-growth scenario, the city could even surpass 1.85 million residents, an increase of nearly 9%.
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Home » Barcelona Population Growth: City Hits 40-Year High
Migration Drives Barcelona Population Growth
The driving force behind this expansion is unequivocally migration. The city is currently experiencing a negative natural balance, meaning there are more deaths than births. In 2024 alone, Barcelona registered 14,680 deaths compared to just 11,091 births. Despite this, the city added nearly 30,000 new inhabitants overall, buoyed by the arrival of 46,000 new residents through migratory movements.
Without this influx of new residents from abroad and other parts of Spain, the city’s population would be in decline. The ‘low’ demographic scenario outlined in the report warns that without sustained migration, Barcelona could lose 2.5% of its population by 2044, dropping to around 1.66 million.
An Ageing Workforce and the ‘Grey Wave’
While the total number of residents is rising, the composition of society is ageing rapidly. The projections indicate a significant demographic shift: the population aged 65 and over is expected to increase by 21.5%. By contrast, the working-age population is forecast to shrink moderately by 1.3%.
The number of centenarians is also set to rise, with a distinct gender gap. By 2044, it is estimated that 1,045 women will reach the age of one hundred, compared to just 275 men.
Ciutat Vella to Surge, Les Corts to Shrink
Growth will not be uniform across the city’s map. Ciutat Vella is projected to experience the most dramatic expansion, with a potential demographic increase of 24.9%. Consequently, the City Council estimates that Ciutat Vella will overtake Gràcia in population rankings by as early as 2035.
Conversely, Les Corts stands as the outlier. It is the only district predicted to see a population decline, potentially shrinking by 2% over the next two decades. Meanwhile, the Eixample and Sant Martí districts are set to remain the most populous areas of the city.
Political Implications: More Seats at the Council
These demographic changes carry tangible political consequences. Under Spain’s electoral laws (LOREG), the size of a municipal council is determined by its population. If the current 2025 population figures are consolidated in the 2026 register, Barcelona will cross the threshold required to gain two additional councillors.
This means that in the anticipated 2027 elections, the City Council plenary would expand from 41 to 43 seats. This would mark a return to the council size seen in 1979, during the first municipal elections of the democratic era, when the city was significantly more densely populated with nearly 1.9 million inhabitants.
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