The approximately 10,000 tourist flats set to lose their operating licenses in Barcelona by 2028 are more likely to enter the sales market than the long-term rental pool, a leading real estate industry figure has predicted. Montserrat Junyent, president of the Association of Real Estate Agents of Catalonia (AIC), argues that a climate of legal uncertainty is prompting small property owners to sell rather than rent.

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The forecast challenges the primary objective of a flagship policy from the Barcelona City Council, led by Mayor Jaume Collboni. In a drastic move to tackle the city’s severe housing shortage, the council announced it would not renew any of the 10,101 existing tourist licenses after they expire in November 2028. The stated aim is to reintegrate these properties into the residential housing stock and alleviate pressure on the rental market.

However, in an interview with Metrópoli, Junyent expressed deep scepticism that the measure would achieve its intended outcome.

“What we are hearing through our agents is that the perception points to them moving to the sales market,” she said. “The majority profile is that of a small owner, and what they are looking for is tranquility. Faced with this legal uncertainty, we see that many homes for sale at the moment are coming from the rental market.”

Junyent, who also presides over the Official College of Real Estate Agents of Barcelona (COAPI), believes the government created a false sense of optimism. “I am not at all optimistic that this measure will translate into an increase in housing for rent,” she added.

A Crisis of Supply

The legal uncertainty cited by Junyent stems from a combination of policies, including the impending licence cull and the implementation of rent controls. Barcelona is one of 271 Catalan municipalities designated as ‘tensioned’ housing zones, where landlords face caps on rent increases.

For Junyent and other industry figures, these interventions miss the fundamental problem: a chronic lack of housing supply. “The basic problem, so as not to lose focus, is always the lack of supply,” she stated. “All market tensions are affected by this deficit.”

Barcelona’s unique geography, hemmed in by the Mediterranean Sea and the Serra de Collserola mountain range, places natural limits on its ability to expand. While the rise of remote work during the pandemic suggested a potential de-congestion, Junyent notes this has not materialised, partly due to persistent mobility challenges highlighted by recent disruptions on the Rodalies de Catalunya commuter rail network.

Addressing the contentious issue of foreign buyers, who accounted for a significant percentage of home purchases in recent years, Junyent argued they are a symptom, not the cause. “It may seem that foreigners are pushing out ‘the locals’, but the reality is that there is a lack of housing for everyone,” she explained.

Industry Proposes Alternative Solutions

Frustrated by what they see as counterproductive policies and political gridlock, Catalan real estate agents have launched initiatives like the “Pacto Transversal por la Vivienda” (Transversal Housing Pact) to advocate for more stable, supply-focused solutions. Junyent outlined several immediate actions the city could take.

She urged the council to facilitate the subdivision of large flats, particularly in central districts like the Eixample, to increase the number of available homes. Furthermore, she called for a drastic reduction in bureaucracy, noting that securing a building licence can take an average of two years.

Junyent also suggested exploring unconventional housing options, such as converting former commercial backrooms, known as “trastiendas”, in neighbourhoods like Gràcia and Sants. While cautious about a city-wide increase in building heights, she believes adding two or three floors during major renovations in certain areas could be considered.

Ultimately, she lamented that viable proposals often become “hijacked by the arithmetic of parties and pacts.” This political stalemate, combined with a general distrust of government programmes, fosters an unstable environment. “In the end, what we as agents want is a calm, stable market that generates confidence,” Junyent concluded. “And everything that is happening is going in the absolute opposite direction.”