Barcelona barometer results show Mayor Jaume Collboni’s Socialist Party leading with 16.1% voting intention, nearly double their closest rivals in the latest municipal survey.
Your browser does not support the video tag.
The political thermometer, conducted by consultancy GESOP for El Periódico in late September, places the PSC significantly ahead of ERC and Barcelona en Comú, who trail between 7.5% and 8% respectively.
Understanding Barcelona barometer methodology
Political analyst Oriol Bartomeus from the Institute of Political and Social Sciences explains that vote recall data consistently shows biases across all surveys. “There’s always an over-expression of voters from the winning party or the one leading the institution,” he notes. Consequently, the barometer’s vote memory doesn’t perfectly mirror actual election results from May 2023.
However, the survey’s demographic parameters align closely with Barcelona’s population registry. The district distribution matches reality proportionally, with only slight underrepresentation in the 25-44 age bracket. Therefore, Bartomeus suggests either adjusting vote recall to match real voting patterns or accounting for this distortion during analysis.
Three key factors explain these discrepancies. Firstly, some respondents genuinely don’t remember their previous vote. Secondly, winning party supporters show greater willingness to participate in surveys. Meanwhile, voters from losing parties often decline participation, creating natural imbalances in the data collection process.
Spanishist parties face representation challenges
The Barcelona barometer reveals particular underrepresentation for Spanish nationalist parties. In the latest survey, the CUP—which failed to reach the 5% threshold for council representation—records 4.5% vote recall, significantly higher than the PP (1.9%) and Vox (0.8%), both of which secured council seats.
Bartomeus attributes this pattern to Catalan-specific survey dynamics rather than political manipulation. “It’s a hidden vote in Catalonia; somewhat shameful voting,” he comments. “It’s difficult to find people who voted for PP, Vox or previously Ciudadanos because they don’t want to answer surveys—they prefer not to say they voted for them.”
Shifting civic priorities across administrations
The current Barcelona barometer highlights civic behaviour as residents’ primary concern, with 89% considering uncivil behaviour “quite or very worrying.” This focus aligns with Collboni’s Pla Endreça, though 61% of respondents admit unfamiliarity with the plan despite its prominence in municipal policy.
Previous administrations demonstrated different priorities through their barometer questions. Ada Colau’s surveys frequently addressed mobility issues, asking about private vehicle limitations and promoting public transport during her superilles initiative. Meanwhile, Xavier Trias focused on street prostitution and Barcelona’s economic promotion following the 2008 crisis.
The Barcelona barometer serves as the city’s only regular political thermometer, tracking both party strength and residents’ evolving concerns. As Collboni’s administration progresses toward revising civic ordinances, these surveys will continue shaping Barcelona’s political landscape and policy direction.
Stay connected with us on social media for the latest updates and news!
TikTok | Instagram | YouTube | X
Source: Read original article
