Greater Barcelona’s population will increase by 580,000 people by 2041, reaching 6 million residents from 5.42 million in 2025. This significant demographic shift intensifies an already critical housing crisis across the metropolitan area, according to a new study. The projections highlight an urgent need for more residential development to accommodate the influx.
A study commissioned by the Área Metropolitana de Barcelona (AMB) and conducted by the Centre d’Estudis Demogràfics (CED) reveals these stark forecasts. Approximately 323,000 of these new residents will settle within the AMB’s immediate conurbation, which includes Barcelona and its surrounding municipalities. This anticipated growth surpasses the 223,000 increase observed between 2011 and 2025, when the metropolitan population grew from 3.23 million to 3.45 million.
Ramon Torra, AMB manager, described the housing situation as “an emergency.” Speaking at an event marking the AMB’s 15th anniversary, he stated, “The main policy is to build, according to Barcelona Metropolitan Housing Observatory. Even more so in a territory where the population grows significantly.” Torra also noted that while housing is discussed “more than ever,” construction rates are “less than ever.”
Metropolitan Housing Shortage Deepens
The projected population increase translates to an annual demand for approximately 14,200 new homes, based on the study’s calculation of 2.5 people per household. However, data from Idescat indicates that only around 8,500 new homes are constructed annually within the same area. This creates an annual deficit of 5,700 homes, exacerbating the existing shortage of affordable housing and making it harder for new households to find accommodation.
Marc Giribet, Mayor of Sant Andreu de la Barca, a municipality within the AMB, highlighted the severe lack of available land. He warned, “We cannot accommodate more people. Therefore, unfortunately, we cannot tell the young people of Sant Andreu that they will be able to stay in the city.” Giribet noted his municipality only has land for 109 new homes. He advocates for development in the “third metropolitan ring,” peripheral areas with more room for expansion, rather than further densifying existing urban centres.
Migration Drives Demographic Change
Natural population growth has been negative in the AMB since 2017, a trend shared with Greater Barcelona and Catalonia as a whole. This decline results from an ageing population and low birth rates. Births in the metropolitan area decreased significantly, from 32,600 in 2011 to 23,100 in 2023, a reduction of nearly 10,000 in just over a decade. The average fertility rate in Catalonia stood at a historic low of 1.03 children per woman in 2024.
Consequently, migratory growth has become the key driver of population increase, particularly intense in 2022 and 2023. The AMB acknowledged this phenomenon “contributes to the demographic and economic dynamism of the territory, but also poses challenges in terms of integration and cohesion.” Areas like L’Hospitalet, the Besòs axis (Badalona-Santa Coloma), and parts of Nou Barris already experience high levels of overcrowding due to positive migration balances and limited housing options.
Addressing Urban Segregation and Gentrification
This demographic shift also presents significant social challenges. Journalist and analyst Milagros Pérez noted, “Urban segregation in the metropolitan area is growing. It is the great challenge for the coming years.” She added that “the room as housing is growing at an impressive speed,” reflecting the struggle for affordable accommodation. Oriol Bartomeus, Director of the Institut de Ciències Polítiques Socials, linked gentrification to income disparities. He explained, “Young people with money are not expelled; those without money are,” citing the Centre Cultural del Born area as an example where gentrification effects are visible.
Bartomeus also highlighted how investment funds can undermine local housing policies, creating a “pessimistic mood” that some political factions exploit to target migrants instead of addressing systemic issues. Experts at the AMB 15+15 Dialogues, held this Thursday, 26 March, discussed strategies to address these complex issues. They emphasised creating strong economic centres in the third metropolitan ring, where significant population growth is anticipated. Additionally, they called for urgent improvements, or even free public transport, to enhance connectivity between residential and work areas. This echoes recent public debate surrounding the ongoing crisis in the Rodalies commuter rail network.
Originally published by El Periódico Barcelona. Read original article.
